Commanders vs Eagles Odds
The Eagles jumped out to a 24-0 first half lead in Washington in Week 3 and held on to win 24-8, easily covering the -5.5 spread despite falling in the second half did not score a single point. That mediocre second half also helped the less than (47.5) cash without much effort. Should we expect a similar result this time?
Commanders vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis
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Commanders vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are second in points per game (28.1) and fourth in DVOA, but Washington is one of the tougher defenses they’ll face.
In the first meeting between these teams, the Commanders held the Eagles to a season-off of 72 rushing yards. Hurts was held to his lowest yards-per-carry average (2.22) and second-lowest rushing total (20 yards) in a game this season.
Despite connecting on pass plays of 45, 44 and 31 yards to DeVonta Smith, plus a 40-yarder to Grant Calcaterra, the Eagles managed to hang just 24 points on the scoreboard. They were forced to punt six times, a season high, and were held scoreless on eight of their 12 drives (not including the last possession when the clock ran out).
Ron Rivera’s defense is second against run and third in pressure percentage (26.6%, according to Pro Football Reference). This is a recipe for success against a Philadelphia side that averages the second most rush tries per game (34.5) and sees Hurts’ passer score drop from 119.6 in a clean bag to 76.7 under pressure. Washington’s pass defense has improved since cornerback William Jackson III (who has since been traded) was benched in Week 5.
According to RBsDM.com, Washington’s defense ranks sixth in hit rate (42.5%) and ninth in drop of expected points added per game (-0.037) since Week 5. It was 17th in hit rate (45.1%) and 27th in dropback EPA per game (0.199) in Weeks 1-4.
Commanders +10.5 | Eagles -10.5
When the Commanders have the ball, they face a top-three Eagles defense that kept them scoreless for the first 58 minutes and five seconds of the first encounter.
Washington was quarterbacked by Carson Wentz, but it’s not like Taylor Heinicke is doing better. The Eagles are eighth in pressure percentage, and Heinicke’s passer rating under pressure (36.6) ranks 38th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks, per PFF. The Eagles play zone coverage with the ninth highest percentage in the league and Washington ranks 27th in yards per goal versus man coverage (6.7) since Heinicke took over in Week 7 (they are sixth versus man coverage over that same period).
Heinicke loves feeding the ball to Terry McLaurin, who has drawn 28.4% of his targets and accounted for 38.5% of his passing distance, but the Eagles are second in DVOA to No. 1 wide receivers, according to Football Outsiders. McLaurin has had some big name corner kicks lately, but this is still a tough game against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who are fourth and 14th respectively in the PFF coverage of 114 qualified corners. Thanks to those outside studs, the Eagles have the lowest rate of explosive pass plays of 16 or more yards allowed (8.5%)
The Eagles are vulnerable on the ground, but the attack from the Commanders’ 27th rank isn’t guaranteed to exploit them. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. disappointed on the ground, combined to average just 3.51 meters per cabin bag on 156 carriers.
Washington’s best offensive line in this game is Curtis Samuel, who has 18 carries for 122 yards (6.22 YPC). Samuel also sees a high percentage of looks from the slot, with the Eagles missing starting nickel corner Avonte Maddox (hamstring).
Whether the commanders can run or not, they will try to shorten the game as best they can. According to Football Outsiders, they rank 31st in situation neutral pace (33.45 seconds) and 24th in average seconds between plays in the first half (29.50).
Both defenses match up well with the opposing offenses here, making this game what it takes for a gritty, low-scoring NFC East matchup.
According to our Action Labs data, the division’s outdoor unders are 57-34 (63%) since the start of last season.
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